Testing deviations from PPP and UIP: evidence from BRICS economies

Abstract

Purpose – This paper aims to investigate the interrelations between purchasing power parity (PPP) and uncovered interest parity (UIP) in BRICS economies, namely, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, by checking the validity of the capital-enhanced equilibrium exchange rate (CHEER) approach. Further, this study tests whether the CHEER results are data frequency-dependent. Design/methodology/approach – The present study uses monthly data ranging from 1997M01 to 2016M12 and considers the US economy as the representative foreign country. The study uses structural break unit root test and structural break cointegration technique to test the presence of economic relationships between nominal exchange rates and each of the price and interest rate differentials. Then, the study examines the validity of the CHEER approach by testing the appropriate theoretical restrictions. Findings – The cointegration results suggest the existence of two cointegrating vectors representing UIP and PPP conditions. For all countries, the data appear to support the hypothesis that the system contains UIP and PPP relations. However, each of the international parity hypotheses is strongly rejected when formulated in isolation and jointly, leading to repudiation of the CHEER validity. Further, it is found that the results are data frequency-dependent and suggest that higher frequencies should be used as they provide additional information. Originality/value – First, the literature on equilibrium exchange rates in BRICS economies is scanty. BRICS economies are large-emerging economies and one of the fastest growing economies and thus entail an empirical enquiry on their exchange rates. Second, the empirical application has mainly used monthly data to test the validity of the CHEER approach. However, data frequencies could affect the results. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to check data frequency-dependency in examination of the CHEER approach.