Dynamic environment-induced multistability and critical transition in a metacommunity ecosystem

Abstract

We study a metacommunity model of consumer-resource populations coupled via dispersal under an environment-dependent framework, and we explore the occurrence of multistability and critical transition. By emphasizing two magnitudes acting on a dynamic environment at temporal and spatial scales, the coupled system with simple diffusive coupling and the nonlinear environmental coupling enables various interesting complex dynamics such as bistability, multistability, and critical transitions. Using the basin stability measure, we find the probability of attaining each alternative state in a multistable region. In addition, critical transitions (one from a high to a low species density and the other from a low to a high species density) are identified at different magnitudes in the presence of stochastic fluctuations. We also explore the robustness of critical slowing-down indicators, e.g., lag-1 autocorrelation and variance, to forewarn the critical transition in the metacommunity model. Further, a network structure also identifies synchronization and multiclustering for a different choice of initial conditions. In contrast with the earlier studies on dynamic environmental coupling, our results based on the defined magnitudes provide important insights into environmental heterogeneity, which determines the set of environmental conditions to predict metacommunity stability and persistence