Dragon-king extreme events as precursors for catastrophic transition

Abstract

Unexpected catastrophic transitions are often observed in complex systems. However, the prediction of such transitions is difficult in practice. Here, we find a special kind of extreme events with a dragon-king probability distribution that occur just prior to a catastrophic transition and, hence, can serve as its precursor. To illustrate the application of dragon kings as a precursor, we consider a practical experimental thermo-fluid system and a theoretical model of coupled logistic maps with quasi-periodic forcing, both systems displaying a catastrophic transition.