Abstract:
A constraint to represent maximum likelihood of occurrence for coexistent variable demand and variable
generation is proposed for inclusion in the conventional static load dispatch. The constraint allows direct
representation of cross-correlations between variable power levels, which makes the dispatch appropriate
for scenarios with high penetration of renewable power generation.
At optima, the augmented dispatch converges to utility generation cost that is “most likely to occur”;
and can therefore provide useful support for generation resource planning by accommodating demand
and generation variability.
Formulation of the maximum likelihood load dispatch, as well as Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions for its
optima, are presented in the paper. Features of the optima are established by three-generator and
twenty-generator case studies that represent both centralised and distributed variable generation
scenarios.
