Abstract:
In the age of climate warming, comprehension of
ecosystems’ future is one of the pressing challenges
to humanity. While most studies on climate warming
focus on the ‘magnitude of change’ of the Earth’s
temperature, the ‘rate’ at which it is increasing
cannot be ruled out. Rapid warming has already
caused sudden ecosystem transitions at numerous
biodiversity hot spots; a mechanistic understanding
of such transitions is crucial. Here, we study a slow–
fast consumer–resource ecosystem interacting in rapid
warming scenarios. Employing geometric singular
perturbation theory, we find that while a gradual
change in mean temperature may accord population
persistence, a critical warming rate can drive the
resource’s sudden collapse, termed a warminginduced abrupt transition. This further triggers the
bottom-up effect, resulting in the extinction of the
consumer. The difference between the optimum
temperature of the resource’s growth rate and
the habitat temperature is crucial in deciding the
critical rate of warming. Consequently, species
inhabiting extreme temperature regions are more
susceptible to warming-induced collapse than those
within intermediate temperature ranges. We find that
stochastic fluctuations in the system can advance
warming-induced transitions, and the efficacy of
generic early warning signals to anticipate sudden
transitions is challenged.
