Abstract:
The delay of an infectious disease is significant when aiming to predict its strength and
spreading patterns. In this paper the SEIR (susceptible–exposed–infected–recovered) epidemic
spread with time delay is analyzed through a two-dimensional cellular automata
model. The time delay corresponding to the infectious span, predominantly, includes death
during the latency period in due course of infection. The advancement of whole system
is described by SEIR transition function complemented with crucial factors like inhomogeneous
population distribution, birth and disease independent mortality. Moreover, to
reflect more realistic population dynamics some stochastic parameters like population
movement and connections at local level are also considered. The existence and stability of
disease free equilibrium is investigated. Two prime behavioral patterns of disease dynamics
is found depending on delay. The critical value of delay, beyond which there are notable
variations in spread patterns, is computed. The influence of important parameters affecting
the disease dynamics on basic reproduction number is also examined. The results obtained
show that delay plays an affirmative role to control disease progression in an infected host.
